Global Stock Indices Outshine Wall Street
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In recent days, the A-shares have been oscillating near previous low support levelsThe prevailing trend indicates a downward movement, forming a descending triangle patternShould there be no strong external intervention in the short term, the likelihood of further decline is significantIf a downward trend continues, the next support level will fall to the lowest point observed previously.
The Kweichow Moutai stocks are currently displaying a sideways range trendRecently, there has been a rebound from the support level, but as of Thursday, it has posted a decline, continuing to fluctuate within the middle region of this rangeAt this point, the trend does not exhibit a definitive direction.
The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index have previously followed similar trends but are now consolidating in a sideways motion
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Recently, they have held onto a critical support level, showing signs of halting the downward trendHowever, they have not yet broken through the descending trend line, leaving any potential recovery uncertain.
The Hang Seng Healthcare stocks have broken below a crucial support level earlier, indicating a downward trendThey are gradually approaching previous low support levelsOver the past few days, a minor rebound was observed, but without breaking the descending trend line, the market remains lethargic, and it cannot be determined whether a bottom has been reached.
The Hang Seng real estate sector has faced a continuous downward oscillation, recently falling below a vital minimum support threshold, achieving a new low
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In the past few days, they have struggled near this support level, yet have not broken through the downward trend line, leaving the halt of their decline uncertain.
The Hang Seng Financial index and the Hong Kong dividend stocks have oscillated in the middle range recently, hitting a support level and then reboundingHowever, they have yet to breach the declining trend line, resulting in unclear expectations of recovery.
The Indian index has gone through a pullback but managed to halt its decline temporarily, only to experience an additional downward shift soon afterIt is now gradually approaching an upward trend line and showed a modest rebound on Thursday without certainty that the downtrend has stopped.
After facing resistance during upward movement, the Vietnamese index has reverted back and is presently experiencing a downward oscillation trend
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The past two days have shown signs of a rebound during this downward phase, indicating a potential halt in decline, yet failure to breach any downward trend line keeps recovery in doubt.
The coal sector has undergone a downward movement following a sideways trend and is gradually nearing the lowest support levelsOver the last few days, there have been signs of a rebound, but without surpassing the descending trend line, market stability remains elusive.
The banking sector saw an upward reversal previously, yet is now hindered by high-pressure levelsThis has resulted in ongoing fluctuations just below the previous peaks, forming a symmetric triangle, and leaving future direction uncertain.
Similarly, dividend stocks rose significantly before dropping back and are now experiencing a sideways oscillation
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Recently, they have approached support levels with signs of rebound, continuing along their lateral path.
Investment insights have shown a global stock index outperforming Wall Street, coinciding with declining bond yields that have captured investor attention along with interest rate discussions.
On Thursday, the MSCI global stock index made gains, in contrast to Wall Street's declines, as US Treasury yields decreasedThis came alongside mixed economic data releases and comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting the possibility of further interest rate cuts.
On Wednesday, US stock prices surged following data that indicated some easing in core inflation
Yet, Thursday's figures showed an increase in US retail sales for December, albeit below expectations.
Moreover, last week's jobless claims in the US exceeded expectations, although they remained consistent with a healthy labor market level.
The dip in US Treasury yields followed remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who indicated that if US economic data weaken further, rate cuts could be realized three to four times this year.
On Wall Street, major stock indices fell after posting the largest single-day percentage increase since November 6.
Adam Hertz, head of global multi-asset at Janus Henderson and portfolio manager, remarked, “From Friday's employment data to yesterday's CPI, the market has been like a rollercoaster
It appears the market is catching its breath, digesting some smaller economic news, considering testimony from Washington, and genuinely anticipating next week as being a major catalyst.”
Investors are closely monitoring the testimony of Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bansent in front of the Senate Finance Committee.
Bansent emphasized that extending the 2017 tax cuts is a pressing urgency, maintaining the Federal Reserve's independence while indicating plans for harsher sanctions on the Russian oil sectorHe had previously expressed the need for the US to prioritize investment that stimulates economic growth over "wasteful spending that drives inflation."
Despite investors’ wishes for the US government to ease regulations, they have been grappling with uncertainties regarding whether their tariff policies will exacerbate inflation.
Hertz noted, “Fortunately, Bansent’s appointment has surfaced fewer controversies, and so far, most of his comments have aligned with expectations
This certainly reinforces the view that this is a pro-market, pro-business government, making Bansent’s appointment notably significant.”
In stock market performance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 68.42 points, dropping 0.16% to 43,153.13; the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 12.57 points, down 0.21% to 5,937.34; and the Nasdaq Composite Index declined 172.94 points, a 0.89% decrease to 19,338.29.
Contrastingly, the MSCI global stock index rose by 1.31 points, reaching 848.61 with a gain of 0.15%.
Earlier, the European STOXX 600 index closed up by 0.98%, buoyed by luxury stocks after Richemont, the owner of the Cartier jewelry brand, reported better-than-expected earnings.
In currency exchanges, the dollar saw a decline as traders absorbed the mixed economic data while assessing the prospects of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and preparing for the impending US government transition.
The dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies, fell by 0.05% to 108.98. The euro increased by 0.09% to 1.0298 USD, while the dollar weakened against the yen, down 0.82% to 155.18.
Comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda led traders to project over a 70% probability of a rate hike from the Japanese central bank next week.
In bond markets, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note fell 3.8 basis points, settling at 4.615% after reaching 4.653% on Wednesday evening
The 30-year Treasury yield dipped by 2.2 basis points, bringing it to 4.8556%.
The two-year Treasury yield, which generally aligns with the Fed's rate policy expectations, decreased by 2.5 basis points to 4.239% from 4.264%.
US crude oil prices declined by 1.7%, closing at $78.68 per barrel, while Brent crude fell by 0.9%, settling at $81.29 per barrel.
Natural gas futures in the US surged by approximately 4%, hitting a two-year high due to forecasts of colder weather over the Martin Luther King JrDay weekend, which could limit production by freezing gas wells and pipelines, despite heating fuel demand reaching record levels.
Due to the decline in US Treasury yields, gold prices rose to their highest levels in over a month
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